REENO Aviation Flying Club

I was asked to review how I approach my weather briefing. An immediate disclaimer: This is not a complete guide, and I am sure i am not mentioning some things that I do, or are situational. Use this a a guide, not a how-to manual. I tried to be comprehensive in describing all that I think about related to weather, but I am certain I left things out. I am warning you, this is a long post. Please read it all, and let me know your comments or critiques.

The importance of weather briefings can not be underestimated. The Nall report, which recently had a name change to McSpadden report, is the AOPA report that summarizes all NTSB data available on airplane accidents. It is now called McSpadden after Rich McSpadden who was one of the most well known aviation safety guru’s in General Aviation died in a plane crash recently. Let this sentence sink in for a second: The report is named after one of the most accomplished GA aviators who made a flying career out of focusing on safety, who crashed. The details of this crash are still being investigated, but some preliminary data indicates an engine failure upon take off, with a failed attempt to return to the airport in mountainous terrain. Also emerging is that there may have been some indications of an engine problem, but that the pressure to go fly for an in-air photo shoot was so high that they did not stopped the whole thing to investigate some engine troubles. Whether this turns out to be the case or not remains to be seen, but the irony of it all is not lost on me, and should give you pause when making your flying go and no-go decisions. Based on conversations I have had with several of my aviation friends inside and outside of the REENO club, I think a bit of a reset of your own flying decision flow chart may be in order.

From the McSpadden report, and I am using data from 2021 (complete) and 2022 (preliminary), we learn that in 2021 there were 938 (967 in 2022) GA accidents (non-commercial) with a 17.7% fatality rate. Pilot errors contributed to the accidents in >80% of the accidents. 70% of the accidents were in single engine fixed gear airplanes. 73.9%, of which 75.8% were fatal were personal flights, compared to 16.5% instructional flights of which 10.7% were fatal. 86.5% of accidents happened in day VMC (7.6% fatal), night VMC accidents were 32% fatal, night IMC accidents 86% fatal.

Most accidents happen during landing (290 / 9 fatal 2021), and take off (119 / 23 fatal). Accidents entirely attributed to weather happened less, but were uniformly deadly (30 / 24 fatal in 2021). Weather played a factor in 30-50 accidents per year over the last decade, with an approximate 75-80% fatality rate consistently. VFR into IMC (Most common, 92% fatal), poor IFR technique (100% fatal), and Icing (100% fatal) are the main categories. In conclusion, weather related accidents are almost always due to pilot error, and universally fatal when they occur.

Peruse the data yourself. It is sobering.

Probably the best single source of weather information was gathered by the FAA in the 2022 publication Aviation Weather Handbook. This book consolidates and supersedes many Advisory Circulars from the previous decades. It is an excellent book, and I recommend you read it cover to cover.

Since 2021 the FAA recognized that the current information age is officially upon us, and that we no longer are obligated to call 1-800-WX-BRIEF. You are by regulation FAR 91.103 required to obtain “Each pilot in command shall, before beginning a flight, become familiar with all available information concerning that flight.”. Advisory Circular 91-92 provides the guidance how to do so, and encourages to use Flight Service in consultation where needed. As this document provides the back-bone of why and how to obtain weather briefings, I strongly encourage you to read the entire document. Foreflight has a “Briefing” button on the “Flights” tab, that registers your download of the briefing with a time stamp. I use this for every destination flight. Foreflight does not register your tapping on TAFs etc. However, if you do obtain a briefing this way, there is a record that is kept for 120 days.

My TL/DR below is truly just a summary of how I approach the weather as it relates to flying. I actually have read, and re-read, the above Aviation Weather Handbook, and I recommend strongly you do this as well at several times during your aviation life. You pick up on different details based on your increasing training and experience levels.

Any weather briefing starts with YOU! The PAVE checklist includes the IAMSAFE acronym (Illness, Medication, Stress, Alcohol, Fatigue, Emotions.), and I have grounded myself many times because of issues related to E. My most common reasons to pull the plug on a flight have to do with enVironment and External pressures and Emotions, or perhaps more narrowly defined: Weather, having to get back to work, and Stress. I think those are my personal high risk categories based on my profession and personality, so I keep a keen eye on my personal minimums in this regard so not to paint myself into a corner. Lastly, I encourage everyone to write down (!) and develop their own personal (weather) minimums. Don’t adjust them on the fly, but adjust them based on increasing experience, or decreasing recency for instance.

Now finally on to my actual weather approach. Every day I look at the weather and weather trends. Every day, whether I plan to fly or not. I click on the prog charts in Foreflight every day. I look at daily forecasts for INT, and do so for my common destinations. I ask myself: Where are the fronts? Direction of movement? Warm or cold fronts? How does that look for the days ahead? where are the freezing levels? Big picture moisture movements, global temperatures in the continental US. EVERY DAY, irrespective of flying that day or week. I try to have weather awareness and learn from trends and learn from surprises.

In the week before a planned flight, I look at the planned departure date, and the return date, weather forecast and try to understand the timing of it relative to the weather on the days before and after. I look at the forecasts and the trends in the forecasts as they adjust over time.

The day before flight I look at the TAF and MOS for the day of flight, as well as the return flight. I can’t emphasize the second half of that enough. Get-there-itis is often MUCH stronger on the return flight (!) for our type of flying. We tend to go somewhere for fun, and then HAVE to return for work…

I use Foreflight as my main hub for information. . If I go to an area I am less familiar with in terms of weather patterns, I ask more experienced pilots around me for insight. I am very frequently consulting my flying guru’s for weather interpretations. Weather is the part of flying that I am still learning the most. This is invaluable. Self briefing implies that you can interpret the patterns and movements, and gauge the impact based on experience. Most of us lack the experience in 90% of the areas outside of our local aerodrome. And most of us don’t have the experience to correctly interpret the weather trends and risks even in our local area. Call someone!

I use prog charts to review the frontal trends. Icing charts, airmet, sigmet charts for extra risks. Validate interpretations by watching the evening news weather. Good thing to do is to click on the TAF of airports that are ‘in the flow of weather” 6-12 hrs from where you are now. It will tell you what might happen here soon. Look at the wind tab under weather in foreflight and look at the temperatures aloft, wind strength and shifts. Do the same for the destination airport. Do not skip this. I have seen amazing differences in as little as 30 nm.

A small anecdote of my own failure to get the weather: During a busy work week I was asked to help shuttle a plane back to Winston from KBUY. That’s not far. The drive to work that morning was gorgeous and sunny. Winston was “clear and a million”. Took off in our “Old and Trusty” 172, and got flight following to KBUY. I always get flight following in that direction so that GSO approach controllers know that I am not aiming for their approach or departure traffic. This worked out great for this flight, as just south of Greensboro, and perfectly visible from 3500 feet was an undercast and complete cover-up of my destination airport. TAF was clear, but METAR was still 200 over and 1/2 mile vis. So a quick pickup flight turned into a all hands on deck IFR flight to minimums and a pop-up IFR clearance. Of note, the 30 minutes turn around on the ground in BUY was long enough for the line to move further south and departure was into VMC back to Winston. This is an important lesson also. Weather is dynamic, and waiting it out is always an option.

So, hours before a planned flight I go back through it all. I get my briefing (there is no penalty to filing a flight plan, and getting multiple briefings in Foreflight. Just keep refreshing the briefing) I get the NOTAMS, refresh the AIRMETS and SIGMETS, get the METARS of departure and destination airports, and various airports in between. I look at the TAF’s for all these airports as well. Overflying weather is not possible in most prop planes. I have had several instances where I took off in VMC / CAVU to then be over an undercast. This can be dangerous on longer flights if you don’t have an “out”. Even if you do have an instrument rating, this consideration should give you some pause. Let’s say you fly from Florida to NC and the weather in GA and SC is uniformly low, say 500 ft overcast, but clear in Winston, you may need to be ready to fly to an airport in between if your fuel calculations are not correct or there is more wind than anticipated. Moreover, if you have an engine issue or emergency, are you good with flying through the deck and having only 500 ft to find a landing spot? If it is cold, it adds another consideration as it could become a lethal ice trap below. When only VFR rated, can you even find an airport that is VFR? These areas can stretch a very wide geographic area.

On my way to the airport (Tesla) or upon arrival at the airport (everyone else), repeat all the above and verify your flight plans. Get METARS, visualize which runway(s) can be used (personal minimums). My attitude is that I am not flying, unless conditions are met. This is a NO, UNLESS kind of attitude, which is similar to the notion we teach for IFR approaches: We go missed, unless we can land.

Pull the plane out and get in it. Finally. Get the ATIS, and register the barometric pressure. Is the trend up or down? I have shown several of you already that the barometer setting based on the ATIS (hourly) relative to the setting based on the altimeter (980 ft at the hangar) can tell you if the next ATIS is going to be higher or lower. Fast changes tell you a front is coming in fast. Blast off and have fun. While in flight, keep checking things frequently. Weather is dynamic, and changes sometimes come faster than predicted. I recently had that experience during a training flight, and although we kept an eye on it and got in before the storm, it was closer than I would have liked. The forecast was just too dynamic to call, off by a few hours, and we thankfully made decisions in the air to get us back right on time. Keep relating the environment to your own weather picture in your head. If it does not exactly add up, start investigating alternatives. In flight I scan the metars and TAFs of the airports around. Look at trends. Look at dewpoint spreads, ceilings. have a local and regional weather picture in mind. Know which airports are getting worse, which are getting better. Wind reports. plan in your head which airports may have a good runway for the direction of the winds.

Where experience really matters is in understanding local variations and issues. For instance, at the coast and at the outer banks, METARS are not always reported and are very local. No matter what the METAR in Wilmington or Manteo tells you, you can expect a breezy ocean crosswind. In the mountains conditions are very local as well. Although a METAR may tell you that there is a strong wind directly down the runway, what is the angle relative to the mountains? Do you understand the role of mountain vortices and mountain wave turbulence. Based on some conversations with my REENO aviation friends, that knowledge appears to be very poor. Depending on wind direction and strength, winds may cause updrafts and down drafts that are exceeding the climb capabilities of a C172, certainly when fully loaded.

One last anecdote from years ago. When discussing fuel loads on a A340 heavy from Frankfurt to KCLT, the pilot team was looking at the TAF for CLT. It was late July, and the TAF looked fantastic. Clear and calm. There probably was a little probability for a little rain and TS in the afternoon, as there always is in NC (right?!) The TAF had a prob 30% for something like that, but was still “green”. This is all second hand, from one of the Lufthansa pilots, but upon urging by one of the pilots who happened to have a family member (me) in the area and had been here many, many times, the captain was thankfully convinced to bring a significant extra fuel load. As they barreled down out of the high flight levels into the continental US, the weather absolutely exploded (as it always does, right?) and hour long holds and diversions were required to make it on the ground after a 9-10 hr flight. I am sure I am getting some of the details wrong, but the point is that local knowledge and experience are almost always required to interpret local weather data correctly.

Night flying deserves its own category. I think night flying in a single engine airplane should be very carefully considered. Your ability to overcome an emergency is minimal. You can’t see clouds. Over flat land, and given the right ‘mission’ to justify the challenge and risk (obligatory training flights come to mind) one could carefully plan a flight path along multiple airports for instance. Flying at night over hostile terrain is generally a really bad idea if you want to survive an emergency, and exceeds my personal risk tolerance. If you add weather to the mix, I think the C172 platform is simply not adequately equipped. I think this fails the A and V in the PAVE acronym under most circumstances. Night flying in IMC in a single engine airplane increases the risk of issues (radios, procedures, equipment) and decreases you ability to recover. It far exceeds my risk tolerance.

I enjoy learning more and more about weather. And there are awesome resources out there. There are some advanced tools out there that I think are fun to learn. Here is a video by one of the GA Weather Guru’s on Skew-t logs.

Anyway, thanks for reading my post. I hope this helpful along the way of your aviation weather journey. Make good, conservative weather choices. Call me, or any of your other more experienced pilots to bounce off flight plans. Never hesitate to drive.

Cheers,

David